Given the importance of Maharashtra in political and financial terms, its determined tilt towards the saffron ideology is expected to impact the 2024 Lok Sabha election, too. Maharashtra has 48 LS seats, only next to 80 in Uttar Pradesh. On the population chart, too, it stands second to UP. Its GDP share is the largest among all the states and has added to its clout in terms of political positioning. Not surprisingly, the ruling triumvirate has waged a fierce battle to improve its tally of 41 in 2019. On the other hand, the opposition-led INDIA also is sparing no effort to wrest as many seats as possible. In view of the election process which is underway, it would be interesting to understand the statistics of the last LS results.
Although the BJP had returned to power in Maharashtra, even if for just about 70 hours, with Devendra Fadnavis as the chief minister and Ajit Pawar of the NCP as his deputy, the picture changed overnight to see Uddhav Thackeray taking over as chief minister. But the voting pattern remained more in favour of the saffron allies as the comparative figures for the Vidhan Sabha elections held the same year after a few months.
Overall, it can be said that the BJP suffered a loss of two per cent in the vote share in the state compared to the 2014 assembly election. This loss of vote share was combined with loss of some seats, too. The BJP had polled 1.47 crore votes in 2014 Maharashtra Assembly election. Its vote share was 27.8 per cent of the total votes polled. This scenario did not repeat and the BJP could get 1.41 crore votes. This drop was around six lakh than the 2014 tally, amounting to 25.6 per cent vote share.
The BJP had contested 260 seats in 2014 and its vote score was 31.15 per cent. In 2019, the BJP contested 164 seats which included some of its allies as well. The Shiv Sena had contested 282 seats in 2014, securing 1.02 crore votes. Its share was 19.3 per cent of the total votes. In 2019, the Sena got 90 lakh votes – 12 lakh lesser than half a decade ago. The Sena’s vote share came down to 16.4 per cent – a drop of approximately three per cent.
The NCP which was then a united party under Sharad Pawar was the only party which could claim gains in real terms. But it was a mixed bag. Although the NCP suffered a loss in terms of the vote share, it polled more absolute votes compared to 2014. The NCP secured 92 lakh votes in the state assembly election in 2019 against 91.22 lakh votes it had obtained in 2014. At the same time, its vote share of 17.2 per cent came down to 16.7 per cent, registering a marginal reduction.
The Congress could poll about 95 lakh votes in 2014. In 2019, its kitty declined to just 87 lakh votes – a huge loss of eight lakh votes. The Congress party’s 18 per cent vote share in 2014 slid down to less than 16 per cent in 2019. A clear indication of its loss of mass base and popular support in a state which it had ruled for such a long time.
The comparative picture of the vote per cent of these parties with their share in the 2019 LS election shows that the NCP had been fortunate. The NCP gained more than one per cent in the vote share – an improvement from 15.52 per cent in the LS election to 16.7 per cent in the assembly election.
The BJP got 27.59 per cent in the LS polls. There was no significant change as far as its vote bank was concerned. In fact, it was much closer to its 2014 score.
The Shiv Sena had polled 23.29 per cent votes in the LS election. It was around 6.5 per cent more than what it has mustered in Maharashtra assembly election. The Congress party’s 16.27 per cent election performance remained more or less within the same range.
Another significant change this time is that there are six parties in the fray while four parties had fought the assembly election under the banner of two coalitions. Therefore, each party had to field candidates on a reduced number of seats. This, accordingly,reduced their votes in absolute terms and also their individual vote share.
The 2019 LS results in the state were similar to those in 2014. The combined vote share and seat share of the BJP and the Sena were almost the same. This alliance won 41 seats in the state with a vote share of 48 per cent in 2014. The corresponding numbers for 2019 were 41 and 50 per cent. The Congress and the NCP could win six seats with a combined vote share of 34 per cent in 2014. These figures changed to five and 32 per cent in 2019.
While the clear edge the BJP-Sena have enjoyed in 2014 and 2019 is thus evident, their combined seat share has been above 50 per cent in the state in the 1996, 1999 and 2004 elections as well.
The sudden spurt in the BJP-Sena performance in 2014 and 2019 has been attributed to a major increase in the vote share of the alliance.
On the other hand, the Congress-NCP combine’s vote share of 32 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively, in 2019 and 2014 is not much different from 2009, when it had won 25 seats in the state.
As the four major parties in the state had contested separately in 2014 assembly elections, the BJP and the NCP could manage to increase their vote share compared to the 2014 LS election held six months earlier. In the election to the assembly, the Sena and the Congress suffered a little setback. The Sena returned into the NDA fold for the 2019 elections and has now separated, though in a splintered form. The NCP had performed better than the Congress. It won four seats compared to just one for the Congress.
The three-party Maha Yuti alliance is making an all-out effort to better its tally of 41. It is facing a formidable challenge posed by the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi.
A Column By
Dilip Chaware – Senior Editor
A media professional for 43 years, with extensive experience of writing on
a variety of subjects; he is also a documentary producer and book author.
